IDC today released a study that describes the expected uptake of fibre services in New Zealand.
Using analysis of Kiwi's adoption rates for mobile and DSL takeup, IDC has created an 11-year forecast to predict customer uptake of UFB.
IDC says that it expects 120,000 premises to be connected to the UFB network after the first 3-5 years, and after 2015 expects the takeup to more rapidly take off, with the number of premises on fast networks rising from 10% to 50% between 2015 and 2020.
It will take at least nine years before fibre takes over from copper as the dominant broadband access method in NZ, concludes IDC's study.
It's difficult to predict how rapidly New Zealanders will adopt fibre connections, simply because our national UFB strategy and market are so different from previous fibre rollouts in other nations. Overseas, cost, performance, and available content were strong factors in how fast people invested in fibre technology for the home.
In New Zealand, however, IDC believes that the amount and type of education about the potential of fibre, development of content and applications, and consistent, easy-to-manage installation will be the main factors determining how fast uptake proceeds.